This chapter describes the risks concerning the field development plan. More information can be found in appendix D.

Technical risks

The flow assurance of the subsea system is an issue.

During the design of the subsea systems wrong input or just a fault in the design of the system can result in flow assurance problems. When the gas flow is less than expected, the financial model is no longer true. This could turn out as a major financial problem.

Mitigation:

When the pressure is too low to have a reliable flow to the FPSO more well will have to drilled

 

Economical risks

Gas price drops resulting in less income. This would lead to less profit.

The price of the oil/gas price is very unpredictable. This can happen in example as a result of a global economic crisis. In that case, the investment plan of the FDP could turn out to be not profitable anymore. 

Mitigation:

• In the economical model fluctuating gas prizes are taken into account. It is possible find the gas price on which there is no profit anymore. This should be as low as possible.

• As unpredictable as it is, people should be informed about coming economical crisis. When knowing about a possible drop of gas price, the plan should be adjusted do lower the damage as much as possible.

 

Commercial risks

The demand for gas in Vietnam is lower than expected.

Vietnam is a growing market when it comes to energy needs. B&C is responds to this need to deliver gas to support the growing energy needs. When the energy needs are lower than expected, this could cause problems for the economics of the FDP. 

Mitigation:

• Be informed about the economical situation in Vietnam, so that possible changes can be made early to minimize economical damage.

• Make gas purchase agreement so that it is certain that they will buy the amount of gas that is needed for the project to be profitable.

 

Organizational risks

Network error which results in communication loss with the control equipment. 

Computer systems are never 100% reliable. A single computer error could lead to a network error which could lead to loss of communication with control equipment. Loss of control could lead to too high gas flow or no gas flow at all, which could lead to major incidents (people or osts).

Mitigation:

• During designing and planning of the computer systems, do not save too much money to get it cheaper.

• Duplicate vital computer systems, which is redundancy.

• Train a special team that can cope with IT emergencies and can solve them as fast as possible.

 

Political risks

Due to a political dispute in the area of the field, all assets must be removed as fast as possible.

Parts of the SCS are claimed by multiple countries. This could lead to a confrontation or war between countries. When a confrontation impends to move in the direction of the field, the equipment of highest value should be moved away as fast as possible. When operating on a FPSO, it is possible to disconnect and reconnect later. Subsea equipment is a lot harder to remove in a short time period.

Mitigation:

• Stay informed about imminent conflicts in the area.

• Have a plan ready to move the FPSO to a safe location. Parts of the SCS are claimed by multiple countries. This could lead to a confrontation or war between countries. When a confrontation impends to move in the direction of the field, the equipment of highest value should be moved away as fast as possible.